EU beef production to peak this year - GAIN
The cut is forecast to take place in mainly Western Europe
27 December 2024
2 minute read
By: Due to a dim economic outlook and mounting regulations, the EU herd size and calf crop are forecast to shrink for the ninth successive year in 2025, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.
The cut is forecast to take place in mainly Western Europe. In Central Europe, both the dairy and beef cow herds are stabilising combined with a concentration and commercialisation of the sector.
This year, slaughter is forecast to accelerate caused by relatively high prices for steer and cow carcasses. Another factor in mainly Western Europe is the outbreaks of the Bluetongue Virus (type BTV-3) and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD). Due to a smaller herd size and calf crop, slaughter is projected to decline next year. EU cattle exports are dropping because of significantly lower shipments to Turkey.
A hike in slaughter and elevated carcass weights are forecast to increase EU beef production by 2.2% in 2024. Assuming stable weights at slaughter, EU beef production is projected to decline by 1.5% in 2025.
Despite the increased production, the EU beef market remains tight, as imports continue to shrink, and exports surge. The EU’s main export market for cattle, Turkey, is shifting from importing cattle to importing beef. As a result, beef exports are forecast to increase by more than 10% this year and remain at a relatively high level next year.
