China beef output to dip in 2025 as cattle culling persists
Financial strain, falling prices push producers to exit market
25 April 2025
1 minute read
By: Beef production is expected to decline slightly in 2025 due to lower inventories of finished cattle and a drop in dairy cow slaughter, according to a recent USDA FAS forecast.
Ongoing financial losses, falling beef cattle prices and rising debt are forcing many farmers to sell off herds, leading to sustained cattle and cow culling. While some younger animals may be slaughtered before reaching optimal weight, the large-scale liquidation of breeding cows continues to hamper herd recovery, limiting domestic beef production capacity.
Despite government efforts to stabilize inventories through subsidies, insurance, and marketing support, the measures have only slowed the downward trend in prices. Financial pressure remains high, and experts predict the liquidation of herds will continue as long as profitability in the sector remains elusive.
At the same time, fewer dairy cows will be culled for beef in 2025, as milk production stabilises following a 2.8% year-on-year decline in 2024. Milk prices appear to have bottomed out, reducing incentives to divert dairy cattle to the beef sector.
