30 August 2024

12 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Asia

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net US sales of 17,200 MT for 2024 were up 8 percent from the previous week, but down 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (5,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), China (3,300 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (1,900 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Net sales of 200 MT for 2025 were reported for the Philippines (100 MT) and Japan (100 MT). Exports of 14,800 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (3,500 MT), Japan (3,100 MT), China (2,700 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,300 MT).

Pork: Net US sales of 42,200 MT for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (13,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), China (11,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (6,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Colombia (2,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Japan (2,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (100 MT). Exports of 29,300 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,900 MT), Japan (3,600 MT), Colombia (2,400 MT), China (2,100 MT), and Canada (2,000 MT).

USDA to conduct field trials for vaccines aimed at preventing H5N1 from infecting US dairy cows

While four vaccines are licensed for avian influenza, none are approved for the current strain. USDA’s trials, which began in April, are still in progress, with the agency considering next steps, including vaccine production if successful. Concerns include the rapid mutation of the virus, potential vaccine efficacy, and the risk of losing export markets due to difficulty distinguishing vaccinated from infected birds. USDA stresses biosecurity as the primary defense against the outbreak. USDA’s Center for Veterinary Biologics is now accepting submissions for field studies that could lead to conditional or full licensure of nonviable, non-replicating vaccines. This marks a shift from previous requirements that all studies, even those not involving virus challenges, be conducted in containment facilities. Besides traditional vaccine development, there is also interest in mRNA vaccines, similar to those used for Covid-19, which are being tested for their efficacy in both animals and humans.

NPPC launches Young Pork Advocates program to empower future industry leaders

The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has introduced the "Young Pork Advocates" Strategic Investment Program for individuals aged 18-22. Unveiled at the 2024 World Pork Expo, the program aims to empower young advocates in the pork industry by providing networking opportunities, policy updates, advocacy training, and more. The initiative highlights NPPC's commitment to equipping future industry leaders with the skills and connections needed to drive positive change. Membership benefits include access to industry events, scholarships, and professional development opportunities.

Additionally, the "Young Pork Advocates Issues Meet," a speaking competition for young people aged 17-22, was also introduced at the World Pork Expo. This competition encouraged participants to engage in discussions about pressing issues in the pork industry and devise solutions. The competition concluded with Emma Kuhns winning a $2,500 scholarship and a trip to Washington, D.C., for the NPPC's fall legislative fly-in.

HPAI confirmed in Michigan dairy herd

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been confirmed in a Michigan dairy herd, marking the nation's first detection in almost two weeks. This brings Michigan's total affected dairy herds to 28.

US beef imports surged in 2024 due to record-high cattle prices and smallest domestic herd since 1950s

From January to June 2024, live cattle imports increased by 19%, with 1.12 million animals imported, mainly from Mexico. Imports of fresh/chilled and frozen beef also saw significant growth, rising by 11% and 29%, respectively. Tight domestic supplies and high prices are driving the increase in foreign acquisitions, with Mexico, Canada, and Brazil being key suppliers. As the U.S. cattle herd continues to decline, beef imports are expected to remain elevated.

USDA Cattle on Feed Report slightly negative

USDA estimated there were 11.095 million head of cattle in large US feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of Aug. 1, up 31,000 head (0.3%) from year-ago, 65,000 head more than analysts expected. July placements increased 5.8% (3.2% increase expected), while marketings rose 7.7% (8.1% increase expected).

Supportive US frozen meat stocks data

USDA’s Cold Storage Report Friday afternoon showed US beef stocks in frozen storage at the end of July at 407.1 million lbs., down 799,000 lbs. from June, whereas the five-year average was a 10.8-million-lb. increase during the month. Beef stocks declined 3.3 million lbs. (0.8%) from year-ago and were 36.4 million lbs. (8.2%) less than the five-year average. Pork stocks totaled 450.7 million lbs., down 24.2 million lbs. from June, far greater than the five-year average 7.2-million-lb. decline for the month. Frozen pork inventories fell 20.1 million lbs. (4.3%) from last year and were 51.5 million lbs. (10.3%) below the five-year average.

USDA reports countervailing duty investigation initiated on certain EU dairy products going to China

On August 21, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) of the People's Republic of China (PRC) announced that it had initiated an anti-subsidy (i.e., countervailing duty or CVD) investigation on imports of certain dairy products originating from the European Union. Dairy products under the investigation include all cheese products and certain milk and cream products.

Certain dairy products under the investigation include fresh cheese (including whey cheese) and curd, processed cheese (whether or not grated or powdered), blue cheese and other cheese with texture produced by Penicillium roqueforti, other unlisted cheeses, milk and cream that are not concentrated and not added with sugar or other sweetening substances (with the fat content exceeding 10 percent by weight). Products included in the investigation are classified in the Customs Import and Export Tariff Manual of the People's Republic of China under select harmonized tariff system: Milk and cream exceeding 10 percent fat by weight. Fresh cheese. Cheese grated. Cheese processed, not grated. Cheese, blue-veined. Cheese, except fresh.

New York attorney general Letitia James sues JBS USA

JBS USA is the American arm of the world's largest meatpacker, for allegedly making misleading claims about its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The lawsuit, which challenges JBS's assertions that it will achieve net-zero emissions by 2040, is a significant setback as the company pursues a listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The suit accuses JBS of "greenwashing" by making deceptive statements about its environmental impact in ads and public statements, including claims made by CEO Gilberto Tomazoni during a New York Times event. The National Advertising Review Board had already found JBS's net-zero claims misleading last year.

JBS, already under scrutiny for its environmental practices and past corruption scandals, disputes the allegations and states it remains committed to reducing agriculture’s environmental impact. The lawsuit could further complicate JBS's business plans, including its delayed NYSE listing, and serves as a broader warning to companies regarding the serious consequences of misleading environmental claims.

Animal diseases cause $96 million annual loss in U.S. soybean exports

Animal diseases have significant economic impacts beyond the immediate loss of livestock, affecting related industries like the U.S. soybean market, which is crucial for animal feed, according to analysis by Southern Ag Today (SAT). Recent studies show that global outbreaks of animal diseases lead to considerable losses in soybean export potential, with an average of over $96 million lost annually due to decreased demand for soymeal, a primary protein source in animal feed. The U.S., the second-largest soybean exporter globally, has historically supplied key markets such as China, Mexico, and Japan.

SAT writers say these findings highlight the need for policymakers to consider the broader effects of animal disease outbreaks on upstream industries like soybean production. Current animal health policies primarily focus on compensating livestock producers, but they do not adequately address the ripple effects on suppliers, such as the additional costs incurred by grain producers due to extended storage or quality losses. Enhancing supply chain resilience in the face of animal diseases should be a priority to mitigate these wider economic impacts.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (8/23) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $3.1300. The weekly average for Grade AA is $3.1590 (+0.0180). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $2.1000 and 40# blocks at $2.0375. The weekly average for barrels is $2.2250 (+0.0410) and blocks $2.0820 (+0.0325). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2825. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.2790 (+0.0410). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5650. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.5610 (+0.0020).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: In the West, domestic butter demand varies from steady to stronger. For the Central region, domestic butter demand is strengthening. In the East, domestic butter demand is unchanged. Cream volumes are tight in the East and Central regions. Although cream supplies in the West are looser and more balanced comparatively, stakeholders in the region don’t describe cream volumes as excessive either. Butter production paces vary from steady to weaker. Many manufacturers are relying on contracted cream loads to keep churns moving. Some butter makers convey unsalted butter stocks available for spot buyers are tight. Bulk butter overages range from minus 7 to 10 cents above market, across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese production is trending seasonally steady to lighter throughout the U.S. Milk availability remains tight in the East. Milk available for Class III processors is constrained by Class I pulls for schools, and cheese production remains light in the region. Contacts anticipate more spot milk availability after Labor Day. Retail demand is steady. Cheesemakers in the Central region relay steady cheese demand. Contacts share demand for barrels remains strong, but spot load availability is rare. Spot milk availability, too, is limited and settled at $2.25 to $3-over Class III. Cheese production is mixed in the West. Some processors relay increased manufacturing while others note tight spot milk availability is slowing manufacturing. Contacts note cheese inventories vary throughout the region.

FLUID MILK: Fluid milk and cream production is mixed across the United States. Steady to slightly increased milk production is being reported in the Upper Midwest, Pacific Northwest, and California’s Central Valley. In those areas, low temperatures in the upper 60s and highs in the 70s have made an impact. Milk volumes in the remainder of the country are still decreasing week to week. Temperatures across the south from the high 80s to triple-digits continue to affect cow comfort and stifle milk production. Milk output in the Northeast remains tight despite cooler temperatures brought by rain and cloud cover from Hurricane Ernesto. Strong winds and flooding pose transportation obstacles that linger as Ernesto makes its way into the North Atlantic. Spot milk availability has not loosened and demand from Class I has increased in all regions. Peak season bottling orders have increased as school schedules pick up for the fall semester. Some processors do not expect any relief in the spot market until after Labor Day. Spot milk prices reported ranged from $2.25 - $3-over Class III. Milk merchants state condensed skim availability is minimal. Condensed skim demand is steady in the East and Midwest while demand is stronger in the West. Cream accessibility is following milk, with tightness keeping loads nearby to fulfill regional contract needs. Spot loads for end users are nearly nonexistent in the Midwest. Some buyers in the Midwest have been turned down by West cream sellers as contract orders absorb what is available. Cream multiples are 1.36 – 1.52 in the East, 1.29 – 1.45 in the Midwest, and 1.18 – 1.33 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices increased in all regions. Tightening availability and slight demand increases are culminating to create firm markets for NDM. Dry buttermilk prices were steady to higher in the country this week. In the West, more buttermilk solids are expected to become available for drying in the near-term. Dry whole milk prices were slightly higher this week, as active bottling for school milk is keeping a pinch on availability for drying. Dry whey price movements were mixed through the country, but general market sentiment is steady. Volumes of dry whey are tightening along with milk supplies for Class III production. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices increased, as customers say available spot loads are difficult to find in recent weeks. Lactose prices were steady to higher, as some manufacturers are sold out through the rest of Q3. Acid and rennet casein prices were unchanged. Lighter milk output in Europe is limiting casein output on the continent.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: New organic standards established by the USDA with the updated Organic Livestock and Poultry Standards aim to improve animal treatment on organic farms. Certified organic operations must meet compliance with the new rules by January 2, 2025. The Organic Integrity Learning Center is offering a new course, the Organic Livestock and Poultry Standards (OLPS) Final Rule Core Course, which was created to teach certifiers, inspectors, and producers about updated USDA organic regulation requirements established by the OLPS final rule. Federal Milk Market Order 1, in New England, reported utilization of organic milk by pool plants during July 2024, utilization of both organic whole and reduced fat milk was up from the previous year. The retail ad survey contained an all-time high for organic dairy ads during last week's retail survey, but the total number of organic dairy ads declined in the week 34 survey.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Conventional dairy ads decreased by 2 percent and organic dairy ads decreased by 79 percent this week. Conventional 6–8-ounce packages of sliced, shredded and block cheese have weighted average advertised prices of $2.52, $2.45, and $2.31, respectively. The weighted average advertised price for ice cream in a 48–64-ounce container was $4.01, which represents a 33- cent decrease from last week. The weighted average advertised prices for conventional Greek yogurt in 4–6-ounce containers and 32-ounce containers were $1.08 and $4.09, respectively. Conventional gallon containers of milk and half gallon containers of milk had weighted average advertised prices of $3.33 and $2.17, respectively. The organic premium for a half gallon container of milk this week is $2.86.

JULY MILK PRODUCTION (NASS): Milk production in the 24 major States during July totaled 18.2 billion pounds, down 0.2 percent from July 2023. June revised production, at 17.9 billion pounds, was down 1.5 percent from June 2023. The June revision represented a decrease of 137 million pounds or 0.8 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,047 pounds for July, 2 pounds above July 2023. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.88 million head, 31,000 head less than July 2023, but 3,000 head more than June 2024.

JUNE 2024 MILK SALES (FMMO): Total Fluid Products Sales 3.2 billion pounds of packaged fluid milk products were shipped by milk handlers in June 2024. This was 2.9 percent lower than a year earlier. Estimated sales of total conventional fluid milk products decreased 3.4 percent from June 2023 and estimated sales of total organic fluid milk products increased 4.4 percent from a year earlier.