17 January 2025

14 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

Europe

South America

North America

Asia

USDA updates list of Central American countries affected by screwworm

Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and Costa Rica have been added to the list of regions affected by screwworm, as detailed in recent Federal Register notices. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) explained that regions are added based on screwworm detections reported by veterinary officials, the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) or other credible sources. These updates reflect actions primarily taken in 2024 or earlier and do not indicate new screwworm findings in the listed countries. Currently, 124 countries are on the affected list, with Mexico temporarily restricted due to screwworm.

Rival exporters accuse Canada of dumping dairy products

New Zealand, Australian and U.S. dairy groups have accused Canada of underpricing its milk products and dumping them on global markets. These groups claim Canada’s milk pricing mechanisms incentivize surplus disposal at artificially low prices, undermining international markets. New Zealand has initiated trade negotiations with Canada under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, while all three nations urge their governments to hold Canada accountable for its trade practices under World Trade Organization and regional agreements. Global milk production is expected to rise in 2025, intensifying competition and trade disputes, with Canadian policies drawing sharp criticism from rivals who advocate for coordinated international action.

Study shows Iowa’s pork industry is a pillar of economic strength

A recent study for the Iowa Pork Producers Association highlights the pivotal role of Iowa’s pork industry in the state’s economy. As the nation’s top pork producer, Iowa contributes 33% of the U.S. hog inventory and supports over 120,000 jobs. In 2024 alone, the pork sector added $15.4 billion in economic value to Iowa, generating $8 billion in household income and $40.5 billion in total sales. The study was conducted by Decision Innovation Solutions (DIS) in 2024. Beyond economic benefits, Iowa’s pork industry emphasizes sustainability. Hog manure enriches soil, reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers, while the use of local feedstuffs bolsters efficiency. Iowa pig farms exemplify a self-sustaining agricultural model that supports local communities and strengthens the U.S. food supply chain.

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 9,700 MT for 2025 primarily for Japan (3,600 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), China (3,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (800 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Canada (600 MT), and Taiwan (600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Mexico (700 MT) and Chile (100 MT). Exports of 14,000 MT were primarily to Japan (3,800 MT), South Korea (3,600 MT), China (2,600 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (900 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 30,300 MT for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (11,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), South Korea (5,000 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), Japan (4,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Canada (2,300 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), and the Dominican Republic (2,200 MT). Total net sales of 100 MT for 2026 were for Mexico. Exports of 38,200 MT were primarily to Mexico (16,300 MT), Japan (4,900 MT), China (4,000 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT), and Canada (2,300 MT).

Germany reports no new cases of foot and mouth disease

Germany has not identified any new cases of FMD, Agriculture Minister Cem Oezdemir announced, following the confirmation of the first case since 1988 in a herd of water buffalo near Berlin. Efforts are focused on controlling the outbreak, while Germany collaborates with European Union (EU) partners to maintain export markets for unaffected regions. Non-EU countries such as the U.S., Mexico, South Korea, and the UK have suspended imports of German livestock and related products as the investigation into the outbreak's origin continues.

— USDA implements import restrictions on German Animal Products in response to FMD outbreak. USDA took swift action in response to Germany's recent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak, implementing significant import restrictions on livestock and animal products from the country.

• Livestock ban: USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has prohibited the import of German cattle, sheep, swine, and goats.
• Horse import procedures: Additional measures for horses, including pre- and post-import decontamination, have been put in place.
• Processed products: Processed pork and ruminant products arriving via cargo now require either an APHIS Veterinary Services import permit or certification of treatment meeting APHIS standards.
• Unprocessed products: Imports of unprocessed animal products from Germany are now banned, with limited exceptions.

The restrictions come in the wake of Germany's first FMD case in nearly 40 years, detected in a water buffalo herd near Berlin. This outbreak has significant implications for Germany's agricultural sector and international trade.

These measures are likely to disrupt Germany's meat and dairy exports, particularly those destined for markets outside the European Union. The loss of Germany's FMD-free status under World Organization for Animal Health guidelines has already led to export challenges, with countries like South Korea imposing immediate bans on German pork imports.

USDA's actions align with standard protocols for protecting domestic livestock from potential FMD introduction, highlighting the serious economic and agricultural risks associated with the disease.

— Germany faces export disruptions due to foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. Germany’s recent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak has disrupted its exports. South Korea, its second-largest non-EU market after the UK, has suspended German pork imports, including 360 metric tons awaiting quarantine inspection. This decision follows Korea's prior resumption of German pork imports under a regionalization agreement addressing African Swine Fever, but presently Korea does not recognize EU regionalization for FMD. Last year Korea imported about 40,000 mt of pork from Germany, representing 7% of the imported pork market. Frozen pork belly made up the vast majority of these imports. Korea has recognized Brazil’s state of Santa Catarina as FMD-free without vaccination, allowing pork imports from that state. But it took many years to reach that agreement, and access is limited to a single Brazilian state.

According to the USMEF, globally, Germany exported 1.277 million metric tons of pork in 2024 (up 18% year-over-year), with 83% to the EU, 6.5% to the UK, and 3.6% to Korea. FMD clauses in export certificates have effectively halted German pork exports to third countries, including key markets like the UK, which imported 79,400 metric tons through October.

Germany remains the EU’s second-largest pork producer, with production reaching 3.553 million metric tons (up 2% YoY). While the EU allows regionalized movement within its borders, third-country export recovery hinges on regaining FMD-free status.

The U.S. imports minimal volumes of pork from Germany, totaling 238 mt through November and consisting only of prepared pork products.

Upshot: Efforts are underway to mitigate the outbreak's effects, including targeted vaccine development to control the pathogen's spread. German authorities are working to support the agricultural sector and prevent further disruptions. This underscores the need for regionalization agreements that would negate the ability to ban from a whole country.

USDA finalizes rule banning pay deductions for poultry growers amid industry resistance

USDA finalized a rule banning poultry companies from penalizing contract growers through pay deductions for underperforming flocks, restructuring the industry’s controversial tournament pay system. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack emphasized that the rule, set to be published Thursday, aims to create a fairer payment structure for growers burdened by heavy debt and limited control over inputs. The new regulation also caps performance-based pay at 25% and mandates transparency in capital improvement requirements for contract renewals. Poultry companies must provide detailed information about capital improvement requirements for contract renewals.

Industry pushback is expected, and the rule may face challenges under a new administration. The National Chicken Council has previously argued that such rules could lead to rigid, one-size-fits-all requirements that might stifle innovation and increase consumer costs.

Notably, USDA has also withdrawn a Biden-era overhaul of the Packers and Stockyards Act, which was intended to address competition issues in the meat industry. This withdrawal, coming as the Trump administration is set to take over, marks a significant shift in agricultural policy direction.

US pork exports stay strong, beef shipments rise in November

The US exported 643.5 million lbs. of pork in November, a record for the month and the highest monthly tally since April. Pork shipments increased 60.7 million lbs. from October and 36.4 million lbs. from year-ago. Through the first 11 months of 2024, pork exports totaled 6.469 billion lbs., up 289.3 million lbs. (4.7%) from the same period the previous year. USDA trimmed its 2024 pork export forecast by 10 million lbs. to 7.108 billion lbs., though that would be up 4.2% from 2023.

The US exported 253.1 million lbs. of beef during November, up 12 million lbs. from October and 24 million lbs. more than last year. Through the first 11 months of 2024, beef shipments totaled 2.744 billion lbs., down 42.9 million lbs. (1.5%) from the same period the previous year.

USDA raised its 2024 beef export forecast to 2.995 billion lbs., down 1.4% from 2023.

USDA made no changes to its 2025 pork and beef export forecasts. Pork shipments are expected to rise another 3.1% this year, while beef exports are projected to fall 13.4%.

China’s meat imports rise in December but fall in 2024

China imported 611,000 MT of meat in December, up 30,000 MT (5.2%) from the previous month. For 2024, China imported 6.67 MMT of meat, down 710,000 MT (9.6%) from the previous year.

USDA releases studies examining the impact of increased line speeds on worker safety in poultry, pork processing plants

Key highlights and reactions:

Study Findings

• In pork plants, 46% of 574 evaluated workers were at high risk for musculoskeletal disorders, with varied effects from increased line speeds.
• The poultry study found higher health risks for workers at plants with increased line speeds.
• The studies were conducted as part of time-limited trials allowing select plants to operate at higher speeds than the regulatory limits.

Industry reaction

• The National Pork Producers Council expressed appreciation for USDA's efforts, stating the studies provide "more certainty in an uncertain time.”

• Some industry representatives found the results reassuring, claiming they prove "higher line speeds are not a leading factor in risks to worker safety.”

Concerns and criticisms

• Labor groups have long argued that faster line speeds increase worker injury risks and could lead to serious injuries.
• Food safety advocates warn that accelerated speeds mean less time for inspectors to catch potential contamination.
• Prior to these studies, overwhelming evidence suggested faster line speeds would worsen already unsafe working conditions in poultry plants.
• The United Food and Commercial Workers International Union (UFCW), representing 1.2 million workers across North America, responded to the two USDA studies. UFCW President Marc Perrone emphasized the dangerous and demanding nature of these essential jobs and highlighted the studies' confirmation of significant worker risks, regardless of line speeds. UFCW called for robust safety measures, including better staffing, improved injury reporting, access to medical care, and ergonomic job adjustments. Perrone stressed the connection between worker safety and food safety, urging employers and government officials to prioritize protections for the workers who sustain America's food supply.

House and Senate Ag panel leaders react. Specifically:

House Ag Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) and Senate Ag Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) issued a joint statement on the study results. They expressed satisfaction with the study outcomes, stating it was "reassuring to see independent studies proving that higher line speeds are not a leading factor in risks to worker safety in pork and poultry processing plants." 

They emphasized that U.S. meat and poultry companies maintain high standards for both worker safety and food safety. However, they criticized the Biden/Harris administration for allegedly overstepping the original scope of the studies, claiming it was an attempt to "villainize the industry." They indicated their readiness to collaborate with the incoming Trump administration to create long-term strategies ensuring meat and poultry companies can operate safely while maintaining production efficiency.

Regulatory implications

• USDA is using these studies to inform potential future rulemaking regarding line speed regulations.

• Current regulatory limits are 1,106 pigs per hour for pork plants and 140 birds per minute for poultry plants, with some plants allowed higher speeds under waivers.

Next steps

• USDA has extended modified line speed waivers for both poultry and pork plants to allow for further study and analysis.
• USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack emphasized the need for comprehensive data before making permanent decisions on line speeds.

Bottom line: The studies and their implications remain a contentious issue, with ongoing debate between industry interests, worker safety advocates, and regulators over the appropriate balance between productivity and worker protection.

Weekly USDA Dairy report

BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.6000. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.5900 (+0.0356). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8500 and 40# blocks at $1.8200. The weekly average for barrels is $1.8655 (+0.0436) and blocks $1.8975 (-0.0156). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.3650. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.3670 (-0.0068). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.7400. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.7415 (-0.0085).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Butter demand is mixed following the back-to-back holiday weeks. Plenty of cream is available throughout the country for butter manufacturers to utilize in their churns. The low end of the All Classes cream multiple range was .65 in the Central region, .70 in the West, and .75 in the East region. Butter production schedules vary from steady to stronger throughout the country. Stakeholders indicate butter inventories have remained healthy, and loads are available for spot buyers. Bulk butter overages range from six cents below to five cents above market, across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese production schedules remain variable throughout the U.S. in the wake of end of year holidays. In the East region, milk handlers share spot milk availability is comfortable and cheese production is commensurate with milk availability. Cheese demand from the retail sector is steady. In the Central region, cheesemakers relay tighter spot milk availability and mixed cheese processing activity. Spot milk prices were reported at Class III to $1 over Class III. In the West region, processors too relay mixed production schedules due to variable spot milk availability. Some manufacturers relay tighter stocks of varietal cheeses than other manufacturers, but spot loads are generally available.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk production is steady to slightly stronger across the country. Weather patterns have brought significantly colder temperatures over much of the country. Milk handlers in the East and Central regions are seeing a slow and steady increase in weekly milk production. Milk production in the West region continues to strengthen. Some California contacts covey milk production is seasonally increasing. Milk availability is snug in all regions. Class I demand for milk is strengthening as bottling activity rebounds, and school districts’ bottled milk needs grow following winter breaks. Class III demand for milk is steady in the West, and milk demand has ticked up in the Central and East regions. Spot milk prices rose from holiday levels, as reported Central spot milk prices ranged from Class III to $1-over Class III. Condensed skim is amply available across the country. Demand for condensed skim continues to be light, and processors are working to find places to send loads. Cream volumes are high and continue to hang over end users. Class IV processing of cream continues to be steady. There has been little change in demand from other Classes. Cream multiples for all Classes range 0.75 – 1.20 in the East, 0.65 – 1.18 in the Midwest, and 0.70 – 1.20 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Dry dairy ingredient market activity picked up for the most part as the holiday season fades further in the rearview mirror. Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices were stable in the Central/East regions, but are mixed in the West. Market activity was light, but Mexican buyers are expected to incrementally pick up their demands as the weeks pass. Dry buttermilk prices moved up across the country. Demand has picked up, while supplies have generally remained tight. Dry whole milk prices were lower this week on somewhat quiet demand from confectioners. Dry whey prices were higher in the Central and West, while East prices held steady. Market tones have not changed much following the holiday trading season. Demand is active, while supplies are tight. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices were steady to higher on strong demand and notably tight supplies. Lactose prices were unchanged on quiet demand. Acid and rennet casein prices held steady this week.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The USDA AMS National Organic Program (NOP) provides an email notification service to send out updates to the organic community. The Organic Insider sent out on January 8 discussed a new module available in the Organic Integrity Learning Center. This new module provides an overview of the USDA Organic Certificate to help certifiers, inspectors, operators, handlers, and other stakeholders to understand the importance of examining organic certificates. The total number of organic retail ads declined by 10 percent in the week 2 retail ad survey. Milk was the most advertised organic dairy commodity this week, while appearing in 16 percent fewer ads than last week. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) releases monthly export data which includes export volumes and values for organic milk categorized as HS-10 code 0401201000. Recently released data for November 2024 indicated organic milk exports were 503,066 liters, up 206.7 percent from the month prior, and up 8.3 percent from 2023. Exports of organic milk from the start of the year through November are up 49.7 percent, compared to the same time period one year ago.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Conventional dairy ads decreased by 6 percent, and organic dairy ads decreased by 10 percent this week. Despite total conventional cheese ads decreasing by 9 percent for week 2 compared to week 1, cheese remained the most advertised conventional dairy commodity. Yogurt was the second most heavily advertised conventional dairy commodity. Total conventional yogurt ads increased by 17 percent compared to the prior week. In terms of organic dairy ads, milk was the most advertised item. The organic premium for a gallon container of milk was $4.40.