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USDA 10-year crop, livestock projections: less corn, more wheat and soy for 2022/23 season

08 November 2021

US farmers are likely to reduce corn acreage while expanding soybeans and wheat acres for the upcoming crop marketing year, the USDA said on Friday.

Reuters reports that USDA forecasts that farmers will plant 92.0 million acres (0.37 million square kilometers) of corn in the 2022/23 crop year, down from 93.3 million in 2021/22. For soybeans, acreage is projected to rise to 87.5 million acres, from 87.2 million.

The USDA projected US all-wheat plantings for 2022/23 at 49.0 million acres, up from 46.7 million acres in 2021/22.

The USDA's projected expansions in wheat and soy acres come as global food prices are at 10-year highs, led by increases in cereals and vegetable oils, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures this week topped $8 a bushel, the highest in nearly nine years, due to tightening world supplies of milling wheat.

CBOT soyoil futures have cooled slightly since notching an all-time high above 73 cents per pound in June, supported by scarce global vegetable oil supplies and rising demand for soy-based biofuels.

US plantings of corn, which requires more fertilizer than soybeans, could be limited in 2022 by surging prices for inputs. A shortage of nitrogen fertilizer due to soaring natural gas prices is threatening to reduce global crop yields next year, CF Industries, a major producer of the crop nutrient, said on Thursday.

The United States is the world's largest corn exporter, the No. 2 global soybean supplier after Brazil, and one of the world's top wheat exporters.

Livestock

Relatively low feed costs continue to improve livestock-sector net returns, with meat to feed ratios being comparatively strong and providing economic incentives for expansion. Nominal prices for beef cattle and broilers initially rise, but then decline to levels below 2020 by the end of the projection period as production rises.

Hog and turkey prices drop in 2021 and then climb slowly. Egg prices increase slowly throughout. Nominal farm-level milk prices are projected to decline for several years and then climb to above the starting point after 2025.

Fluctuating prices and production in the beef sector lead to slightly variable but generally steady livestock receipts in the first half of the decade, but receipts grow over the latter half as production gains generally outweigh lower prices for all species.

Crop cash receipts, however, are expected to grow throughout the decade. Gross cash income rises continuously from $425 billion in 2020 to $464 billion in 2029. Net farm income declines in the near term and but ends the period $4.7 billion higher than in 2020.

Trade

Developments for global agricultural import demand and U.S. trade largely reflect income growth in developing countries and a relatively strong but slowly weakening U.S. dollar over the coming decade. With steady world economic growth and continued demand growth for animal products and feeds, longer run increases in the disappearance, trade, and, to a lesser extent, prices of agricultural products should be supported.

Global trade competition will continue to be strong, and the strength of the U.S. dollar will continue to restrain growth in many U.S. agricultural exports, other than corn, cotton, broilers, and pork, which are expected to experience solid growth. Nonetheless, the United States remains competitive in global agricultural markets, in part due to efficiency gains.

USDA, which plans to release a full report in February detailing its annual 10-year supply and demand projections, said the figures released on Friday were based on its analytical models and not farmer surveys. The projections were prepared from August through October 2021.

Complete crop and livestock tables are available here.

TheCattleSite News Desk



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