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CME: Beef Export Report Leans a Bit Bearish

13 December 2019

US - USDA issued this morning its weekly beef and pork export report (there is no such report for poultry). Our first take was that the report was somewhat neutral for pork (positives and negatives cancelled out) but leaned a bit bearish for beef, reports Steiner Consulting Group, DLR Division, Inc.

Beef export shipments rebounded compared to the previous week but were still about 13 percent lower than the average in the previous four weeks. Net sales were some of the more bearish numbers in the report.

Net sales for the current marketing year were just 9,865 MT and new sales for the new marketing year were 2,033 MT. The combined volume of net new sales was well below the normal weekly export rate for the second consecutive week.

There has been some hope that the lower tariffs for US beef in Japan would result in higher sales to that market and two weeks ago it seemed we were heading in that direction. However, net sales to Japan in the last two weeks have been disappointing.

For the most current week, total net sales to Japan were 3,381 MT, below the weekly export pace. Net Sales to South Korea continue to hold rather firm but they are not enough to offset declines to other markets.

Recently there have also been cancellations of orders to Hong Kong, Canada and even South Korea, which may reflect the extreme volatility in the price of some items, especially end cuts. But it’s not all negative for beef. Total outstanding beef sales last week were 153,759 MT, 14 percent higher than a year ago.


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