What Will 2014 Bring for Brazil's Meat Sector?

BRAZIL – Beef sales are expected to drive a meat exports rise next year, while poultry and pork sectors are side-lined for more modest increases.

12 December 2013

3 minute read

South America

The Association of Brazilian Meat Export Industries (ABIEC) has reported expectations that beef sales will beat poultry earnings, reaching $8 billion, while pork should rebound 'gradually' after a poor year.

Beef income beat poultry earnings in 2000 and 2006 and, backed by predictions of an expensive dollar to the real, will increase 20 per cent on 2013, ABIEC predicts.

Also important to increasing income is reopening up markets such as Saudi Arabia and China after the atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy case late last year in the state of Parana.

Further opportunities may result from diplomatic tensions between Indonesia and Australia as Indonesia looks to alternative beef providers. Similarly, exporters hope to enter the Myanmar and Thailand markets and advancing trade negotiations with the US are buoying the industry.

However, poultry is expected to see more modest growth of four per cent for production, two-three per cent for shipments and three per cent for revenue.

Francisco Turra, Brazilian Poultry Union President (Ubabef) revealed this would follow the current year’s figures which, for January to November, had seen chicken meat export values increase 5.2 per cent to $7.439 billion.

The income rise came despite a slight fall in shipped volume up to November.

Mr Turra said China will continue to review the number of Brazilian processing plants eligible to export meat to China, currently at 24.

He explained that three units have been blocked, awaiting review, although should be granted entry to the Chinese market. Thirteen other plants are currently in various stages of negotiation.

Elsewhere, opportunities lie in wait for Brazilian poultry. Mr Turra outlined Pakistan, Venezuela and Iran as markets targeted to account for extra production in 2014, forecast to lift four per cent.

Next year’s pork exports are also positive.

After a challenging year in which trade embargoes forced January to October pork shipments down ten per cent and left revenue over seven per cent lower, shipments hope to return to 600,000 tonnes in 2014.

Tapping into growing Chinese demand, sales resuming with South Africa and Japanese opening doors in July, will give ‘stability’ to the Brazilian pork sector, said Rui Vargas, Brazilian Association of Producers and Exporters President.

He said that, in 2013, trade was hit by three months of closed trade with Ukraine and mounting restrictions with Russia, which placed sanity controls on several exporters.

This will put 2013 shipments below 2012, explained Mr Vargas.

“We were expecting to reach 600,000 tonnes at the start of 2013, but this was not reached,” Mr Vargas told Economic Value. “Pork exports will be under the 581,500 tonnes shipped in 2012.”

He summarised: "We expect some regularity of sales in 2014, although the target of 50 thousand tons in shipments to Japan is unlikely to be achieved in the coming year. Growth should happen gradually."